5 Signs a Tree Might Fall During the Next Big Storm

Most trees do not fall without warning. The warning signs are already there on your property right now. Most homeowners just do not know what they are looking at.

Western New York gets hit from multiple directions: lake-effect snow loads, ice storms, and fast-moving thunderstorm cells that push sustained winds well above 50 mph across Erie County and Erie County. When one of those systems moves through, the trees that fail are almost always the ones that were already compromised weeks or months before the event.

This post covers the five most common warning signs that a tree is likely to fail during the next storm, what each sign actually means structurally, and what you should do before the weather turns.

What Makes a Tree Dangerous During a Storm?

A healthy tree is surprisingly resilient. Mature hardwoods are engineered by nature to flex and absorb wind load. What changes that equation is structural compromise: internal decay, root failure, crown imbalance, or physical damage that the tree cannot heal fast enough to compensate for.

Storm failure is rarely random. It is almost always the result of an existing weakness meeting the wrong weather event at the wrong time. Catching the weakness first is the entire job.

Sign 1: Visible Cracks or Splits in the Trunk or Major Limbs

A crack in a trunk or a primary branch is not surface damage. It is a structural fracture under active stress.

The most dangerous type is called a co-dominant stem split. This happens when two or more major leaders grow upward at tight angles, forming a V-shaped union with bark embedded between them rather than a solid wood connection. That union is under constant outward tension. Add a heavy ice load or a wind gust and the split accelerates rapidly, often in seconds.

What to look for:

• A visible gap or ridge along the grain of the wood on the trunk or upper limbs
• Bark that has separated and rolled back along a crack line
• A V-shaped fork where the two stems look pinched together rather than flaring outward smoothly

Why it matters in Western New York: Ice storms in the Hamburg, Orchard Park, and Springville areas regularly produce half an inch or more of freezing rain accumulation. A half inch of ice on a 30-foot limb can add several hundred pounds of load directly to a compromised union.

What Redwood Tree Service does: Cabling and bracing can stabilize co-dominant stems in many situations, extending the life of a structurally significant tree without removal. Our arborist assesses whether that option is viable or whether removal is the safer path.

Sign 2: A Lean That Developed Recently

Not all lean is dangerous. Trees that have grown toward light gradually over decades are generally stable, their root systems having adapted to that angle over time.

A tree that has developed a noticeable new lean, especially after a period of wet ground, heavy rain, or soil disturbance, is a different situation.

A sudden lean almost always means root failure has already begun on the compression side. The root plate has started to lift, and the soil on the opposite side can no longer anchor the tree against wind load. You may see:

• Heaved or cracked soil at the base of the side opposite the lean
• Exposed surface roots that were previously below ground
• A gap is forming between the root flare and the surrounding soil

The operational reality: Once the ground freezes after an autumn wet period, that root damage is locked in. The tree carries that instability through the entire winter and into the spring storm season. By the time conditions look calm again, several months of additional stress have been applied to an already failing root system.

If a tree near your home looks more tilted than it did last season, get it looked at before the next weather event.

Sign 3: Dead, Hanging, or Detached Branches in the Canopy

These are called widow-makers by arborists, and the name reflects what they actually do.

A dead branch is no longer attached to the tree through living wood. The connection point has been drying and degrading for months or years. The branch may weigh several hundred pounds. During a storm, it releases unpredictably and travels fast.

How to identify dead branches from the ground:

• Bark that has peeled away, leaving gray or silver dry wood underneath
• No foliage in summer, or foliage that turned and dropped weeks before surrounding branches
• Branches that appear cracked and angled downward but have not yet fallen
• Dense clusters of dead wood in the upper canopy

Ice load compounds this significantly. A dead 6-inch diameter branch that has degraded at its attachment point does not need a direct wind event to fail. Ice accumulation alone can supply the additional weight needed to pull it loose. This is a consistent pattern in the Fredonia, Dunkirk, and Angola areas after winter storms.

Redwood Tree Service includes dead wood removal as part of standard tree trimming. Clearing widow-makers before storm season is one of the highest-value investments a homeowner can make on a per-dollar basis.

Sign 4: Fungal Growth, Cavities, or Soft Wood at the Base

When you see mushrooms, shelf fungi, or conks growing at the base of a tree or along the lower trunk, you are not seeing a surface problem. You are seeing the visible output of internal wood decay that has been advancing for years.

Fungi consume lignin and cellulose, which are the structural components of wood. According to Wikipedia’s overview of wood decay fungi, brown rot and white rot fungi break down the cell wall components of wood in different ways, both of which reduce structural integrity over time. By the time fruiting bodies appear on the exterior, the interior often has significant rot columns already established. The outer shell of the tree can remain intact while the core has been hollowed.

Simple field checks:

• Tap the trunk with your knuckle or a hammer handle. Healthy wood sounds solid. Decayed wood sounds hollow.
• Push a screwdriver or pocket knife into the wood at the base. Healthy wood resists. Decayed wood gives with little pressure.
• Look for sunken bark, wet staining at the base, or unusual soft spots along the root flare

The practical risk: A tree with significant basal decay may look completely normal from 20 feet away. The canopy can be full, green, and healthy-looking right up to the day it fails. Storm failure in these trees tends to be a base snap rather than a branch failure, which means the entire stem comes down in one piece, with no warning.

Trees in this condition near structures, driveways, or utility lines should be prioritized for professional assessment. This is not a wait-and-see situation.

Sign 5: Disturbed or Damaged Root Zone

A tree’s stability is determined underground as much as above it. The root system typically extends outward one to three times the radius of the canopy, and any damage to that zone reduces the tree’s ability to anchor against lateral wind load. Cornell University Cooperative Extension notes that root zone disturbance from construction, compaction, and grade changes is a leading cause of delayed tree decline and storm failure in residential landscapes.

Root damage in residential areas is almost always caused by human activity:

• Trenching for utility lines, irrigation, or drainage within the drip line
• Grading, fill placement, or new hardscape construction near the trunk
• Heavy equipment repeatedly crosses the root zone and compacts the soil
• Chronic soil compaction from foot traffic, parking, or lawn equipment

What makes this particularly relevant in Erie County: Much of the soil in this region is shallow over dense clay hardpan. Trees in these conditions rely heavily on lateral root spread because deep anchoring is not possible. Any interruption to lateral root structure has an outsized impact on storm stability compared to trees growing in deeper loam soils.

The USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service soil survey for Erie County confirms that significant portions of the county contain shallow soils with fragipan or clay-heavy subsoil layers that restrict deep root development, making lateral root integrity especially critical for tree stability in this region.

How to Prioritize: A Simple Risk Decision Framework

Not every imperfect tree requires immediate removal. Use this framework to triage what you are seeing:

The closer the tree is to your home, a vehicle, a power line, or a structure, the higher the urgency. Distance does not eliminate risk, but it determines the severity if the tree does fail.